The need for a decision is triggered by a change of some kind; either a problem has occurred or an opportunity has been identified.
Once the need for a decision has
been determined, alternative courses of action need to be identified and explored. Without exploring the options one is feeling in the dark to a large extent. The size of the decision to be made should determine the effort to be put into it.
Fortunately, most decisions are straightforward – should more stock be ordered, yes/no? - and can be delegated as routine.
But even for routine decisions, where the answer has been the same for a long time, circumstances may change and the answer may need to change as a result. Routine decisions present particlar dangers in a changing environment.
When the situation is not routine then the alternatives should be explored. One of these alternatives should always be to do nothing.
The implications of each alternative should be explored:
- To what extent will it address the issue?
- How much will it cost?
- What are the manpower requirements?
- Timeframe?
- Political acceptability?
- Legal implications?
A cost-benefit analysis may be done to compare the alternatives, or perhaps a proof-of-concept model can be developed on an iterative basis to refine and explore the suitability of an alternative. One needs to simplify in order to develop an understanding for the major issues involved, which might be obscured by extraneous detail.
The purpose of all these tools is to assist understanding and to enable better decisions to be made. They should not become an end in themselves or the results accepted blindly as infallible. They are necessarily abstractions from reality and one should always remain alert to indications that relevant factors may well have been overlooked.
But in the end a bias towards action is to be preferred. Paralysis by analysis is a trap which is always waiting to ensnare the unwary. Complete certainty about a course of is just about impossible when looking at fundamentally issues. In fact, if it seems to be present, this should be regarded as a warning that something is being missed.
If there are any indications that a course of action is problematic, immediate steps to isolate any further problem and take correct action are necessary. The sooner this is done the easier and cheaper it is to correct any problems.
